Litchfield school enrollment is projected to decline by 170 students between 2009 and 2019. (Graph from “Lichfield Public Schools Enrollment Projections to 2019”)

Enrollment in Litchfield’s three public schools is expected to decline by more than 14 percent over the next decade and reach the lowest point in 30 years, according to a recent demographer’s report.  The decrease is caused by lower birth rates and changes in the economy.

The latest projections show the district’s enrollment will decrease from 1,200 students in 2009 to 1,030 students in 2019, said Peter M. Prowda of Simsbury. The district’s enrollment has not fallen below 1,065 students since 1990, when a previous decline bottomed out, he said in a Nov. 23 report to school officials.  Litchfield’s peak enrollment was 1,957 students in 1969.

This fall, “I anticipate that total enrollment will decrease by about 40 students or 3.6 percent,” Prowda said in the report. “That will be the largest drop over the next 10 years.”   Prowda predicts decreases by October of 20 students at the intermediate school, 17 students at the high school, and six students at Center School.

The loss of students is unlikely to have much impact on the district’s 2010-2011 budget, according to school officials.  They expressed greater concerns about maintaining course offerings as class sizes shrink.  At Litchfield High School, enrollment is projected to decrease from 568 students in 2009 to 478 students in 2019.  The intermediate school would lose about 60 students over the same period. Center School would be least affected, since it already has small classes due to low birth rates. 

“My goal is to offer at least as good a program as we’re currently offering for the foreseeable future,” said James Katzin, chairman of the Board of Education.

Katzin and other board members want to explore alternatives for offering advanced courses such as foreign languages, physics, and calculus, which are taught in small classes.  In the future, it’s possible only a handful of students will sign-up for them.

“If we just react year by year, we’re going to end up with a severely degraded program or we’re not going to be able to pass our budget,” Katzin said.  “The document gives us something to plan around.”

“At LHS, there will be little direct impact from the reduction (this fall) as the increase will occur across six grade levels,” Superintendent Deborah Wheeler said in an email.  At the intermediate school, the decrease could reduce average class sizes next fall from 23-26 students to 18-21 students, she said.

“We do anticipate, however, related reductions in expenditures for instructional supplies and consumable texts,” Wheeler said.

Wheeler expressed concern about the long-term projection of 170 less students for the district.

“The non-graduation requirement courses and classes farthest removed from the core content areas are the most vulnerable in such a situation,” she said.  The Board of Education is likely to consider alternatives for those courses and ideas to increase enrollment, such as attracting tuition students, Wheeler said.

A look at Litchfield’s enrollment since 1970.
(Graph from “Lichfield Public Schools Enrollment Projections to 2019”)

Prowda’s report shows Litchfield birth rates dropped from a high of 114 per year in 1990 to 56 in 2008.  He predicts the average birth rate will increase to 66.6 per year from 2010 to 2014.

Several economic factors may also affect future enrollment.  The number of new housing units built in Litchfield dropped from 55 units in 2004 to a low of 10 in 2007, Prowda said.  Fourteen new houses were built in 2008.  Estimates for sales of existing homes fell from 186 in 2000 to 97 in 2008, he said.  The figures for 2009 were expected to be worse.  Last August, Litchfield’s unemployment rate was 6.7 percent, the highest since local statistics were first reported in 1990.

“This is an incredibly difficult time to predict future enrollment,” Prowda said.  “We cannot know today how long these conditions will remain, whether they will increase in severity and when they might end.  It is very likely they will impact any enrollment projection made today.”

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